As we start a new year, I am often asked where home prices are headed.  While I don’t have a crystal ball, I study the market trends and activity closely.  Many aspects affect home prices, such as the overall economy’s health, inventory levels (supply & demand), and interest rates.  Seasonality is also a pattern I pay close attention to, and we are headed into the time of year when we see most of the annual price growth happen.  As we prepare for the Spring market, I have pulled some data that shows the seasonal patterns and the impact interest rates have had on prices, and long-term equity growth.

First, before we look forward, we must look back to understand the relationship between rates and prices.  We went on a long run of rates being below 5% from 2010 to mid-2022, outside of the second half of 2018. Price growth was consistent after the recovery from the Great Recession in 2012 to 2018 and, in some cases, incredibly rapid.  When the increase in interest rates happened in 2018, along with the proposed Seattle Head Tax, we saw a correction in home prices.  It took the market about 15 months to recover from that correction.

Then, we hit the pandemic-fueled market of 2020-2022, where price growth was off the charts.  During that time, work-from-home moves flooded the suburbs and rural markets, early retirements and relocations to other states created movement, and interest rates under 3% drove prices up by double digits.  At the beginning of 2022, rates started to creep up to counter inflation and increased by 2 points in four months, landing at 5.5% in May 2022.  This, like 2018, forced a correction in prices.  This correction took 24 months to recover, with prices regaining their May 2022 peak in May 2024.

This recovery all happened amidst interest rates peaking at 7.91% in Oct 2023 and never going under 6% the entire time.  Rates have hovered from 6.75%-7.25% over the last year, outside of a small window in the Fall when they were in the mid-6%.  This illustrates that the market has become accustomed to the new normal of interest rates, and prices have been strong and stable.  Tight inventory has helped bolster price stability and growth with limited supply to fuel demand.

If you look at the recovery from May 2022 to May 2024, you must also understand the seasonality of the market.  This pattern has rung true for decades and has much to do with inventory levels.  We typically start the new year with the lowest amount of available homes for sale due to the holiday slow down, short, dark days, and many families timing their moves around the school year.  Once the new year starts, would-be buyers hit the market with their housing goals blowing wind into their sails.

This new demand is coupled with tight inventory, and the price growth for the year starts to take shape via price escalations via multiple offers.  This becomes commonplace in Q1, and we begin to see inventory catch up in Q2 when the days are longer, the flowers are in bloom, and we are a little closer to the opening of summer break for schools, creating a less disruptive move.  Despite the correction in 2022 and rates stubbornly remaining in the 6-7% range, sellers have realized incredible gains, and buyers who have made purchases have secured their trajectory of building wealth through owning real estate.

Even though price growth is more accelerated in the first half of the year, the deceleration of price growth sits on the shoulders of the gains in Q1 & 2, ultimately leaving prices higher year-over-year.  This is a pattern we have seen for some time, and we are already starting to see it unfold in 2025.  Month-to-date prices are up in February 2025 over January 2025 by 5% in King County and 1% in Snohomish County.  This pattern can guide one’s timing of the market, and so can life.  As much as hitting the perfect week when there is less competition and rates drop may feel like hitting your bet at the roulette table, making a move is much more nuanced than that.  The timing of a move needs to work with the demands of life, and the good news is the year-over-year gains are positive regardless.

As we head into the spring market for 2025, we anticipate additional price growth from where we are now and following the trend of prices peaking in late Spring.  We should regain and most likely eclipse the peak prices we saw in 2024.  To expand this to the bigger picture, let me share some fun facts about long-term price growth and homeowner equity with you.  This is especially important as real estate is a long-term investment, the four walls where you create your life, and not meant to be a lucky bet on black.

Check out the charts below that show how far prices have come over the last ten years!  In King County, the January median price is up 74% since 2016 and up 36% since 2020.  In Snohomish County, the January median price is up 103% since 2016 and up 51% since 2020.  Equity levels are high across our region, with over 50% of homeowners having 50% equity or more.  Many homeowners are in the fortunate position to reposition their equity into a home that is a better fit for their lifestyle if they are experiencing life changes such as a change in family size, job change, or a financial shift.

In 2024, the Windermere Foundation raised just over $3.5M and served 583 organizations.  Since its inception in 1989, they have raised over $56M!  The Foundation was created to help give back to our communities and focused on assisting homeless and low-income families and children.  Each Windermere agent participates by donating a portion of each commission earned, and additional fundraising is done annually by agents and offices.  Local chapters vet organizations aligning with the Foundation’s mission, and funds are responsibly disbursed.

Offices also take on projects to help give back throughout the year.  Our office consistently raises funds and collects food for the Volunteers of America (VOA) Food Banks of Snohomish County, and we hold three food drives a year.  We understand that food insecurity is a relevant need, especially amid high inflation.  Our next food drive is on Saturday, April 19th, and we will be combining it with our Paper Shredding Event that will be held at our office from 10 am to 2 pm.  If you have some paper to shred, please stop by and bring some food or a cash donation to benefit the food banks managed by VOA.

We also work with Washington Kids in Transition (WKT) and organize a Christmas-giving tree that benefits two dozen youths in the Edmonds and Everett School Districts.  WKT has also started a new mentorship program that helps homeless teens learn critical life skills, such as managing finances and nutrition.  The program also organizes outings and events under the moniker of the Friendship Club that give these teens the opportunity to build relationships and have experiences that would not be available to them like attending a play or a ball game.  These giving projects are near and dear to our hearts, and we are proud to align with these reputable organizations that do such meaningful work.

On January 22, my office hosted renowned economist and housing market specialist Matthew Gardner, who shared his 2025 Economic & Housing Market Forecast. We spent an hour listening to his keen analysis and insights, which included a look back at 2024, some discussion about what to expect with the new administration, and a look ahead to 2025 and beyond. Please let me know if you want to receive a link to the recording or a PDF of his PowerPoint slide deck.

He expertly broke down his presentation using a macro-to-micro approach, starting with the national economy and then narrowing down locally by presenting stats, figures, and predictions about the King and Snohomish County economies and housing markets. Here are my top takeaways.

✅ NATIONAL ECONOMY:

Inflation has become “sticky”! It slowly trended down in 2024 but could tread water in 2025, depending on what happens with tariffs under the new administration. If tariffs are instituted across the board, many countries are predicted to respond by implementing their own tariffs, which would increase the cost of goods.

The Federal Funds Rate will slowly decrease over the course of 2025. Until we get clarity on proposed tariffs on U.S. trade partners, the Federal Reserve will remain aggressive with rates to combat inflation. The current consensus is for the Fed to make two rate cuts instead of four, with the first possibly being in February. NOTE: The Federal Funds Rate is the short-term interest rate (credit cards, car loans, etc.), not Mortgage Rates.

There is no sign of a recession. The balance of inflation, rates, and the overall health of the economy has created a soft landing that avoided a recession. In fact, GDP is up by 2% and the textbook definition of a recession is when the GDP decreases over two successive quarters.

Tepid job growth in 2025. The labor market has cooled nationally after the “catch-up” period seen after the pandemic. Going forward, proposed immigration reform could weigh on labor force growth and hamper job creation. Weak labor force growth keeps the unemployment rate from rising in any meaningful way and is anticipated to peak around 4%.

✅ GREATER SEATTLE AREA JOB MARKET:

Job growth is still happening, yet ever so slightly! Jobs expanded by 1.2% in 2024 and should expand by 1.5% in 2025. The tech sector props up King County, and Snohomish County did have a relatively positive recovery post-Boeing strike. The construction sector is down, and some businesses will “wait and see” about growth once the administration starts to take shape with trade and immigration policies, which will directly affect labor costs.

✅ GREATER SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET:

Inventory will increase in 2025 over 2024 by 8-10%. In 2024, inventory increased by 14% over 2023, which saw the lowest levels since the Great Recession. Lower inventory has been driven by the “lock-in” effect created by the previous low interest rates. Moves have been less discretionary and more so motivated by death, divorce, and diapers. More discretionary moves will happen when homeowners see mortgage rates closer to within 2% of their current rate. However, equity levels are high (over 50% of homeowners have 50% or more equity), enabling buyers who are also sellers to reposition their equity to a home that better fits their lifestyle, should the monthly payment work for them.

Mortgage rates will modestly decrease throughout 2025 and should end up in the low 6%. The biggest headwind is deficit spending now that inflation has settled. This spending will keep the 10-year treasury high, which will have a direct impact on mortgage rates. These are two key factors to watch if you’re waiting for mortgage rates to drop significantly.

Prices increased in King and Snohomish counties in 2024 and are expected to grow again in 2025 despite stubborn mortgage rates. In King County, inventory was up by 10%, sales were up 12%, and the median price was up 10.7% year-over-year. Price growth is predicted to increase by 4% in 2025, which is higher than the historical national annual average. In Snohomish County, inventory was up by 17%, sales were up 8%, and the median price was up 9.9% year-over-year. Price growth is predicted to increase by 5% in 2025.

Affordability is the biggest challenge. With price growth steady coupled with higher interest rates, monthly payments have grown faster than incomes. This has put first-time homebuyers at a disadvantage in core job center locations. Down payment assistance (gift funds) from family and/or high-paying salaries in the tech, biotech, and big corporate companies have differentiated the ability of some first-time homebuyers compared to others with limited down payment funds and higher debt-to-income ratios.

The American Dream is still alive! Homeownership has proven to be one of the strongest hedges against inflation and the single most lucrative wealth-building asset a household can have over time. A key piece of advice for first-time homebuyers would be to do what you can with what you have, which may mean buying a smaller property or going further out in location. Regardless of where one buys, this will put them on the trajectory of building household wealth through real estate and open up an opportunity to upgrade later. In fact, the net worth of a homeowner in 2023 was $396,200 vs. $10,400 of a renter.

This is certainly a lot to unpack as we head into 2025. Stay tuned for even more insights on what we learned from Matthew in my next newsletter. In the meantime, I am here to encourage you and point out that this is a lot of good news. We look forward to more moderate growth in 2025, which is good. Severe increases are not healthy. While we are combating an affordability crisis, the steady wave of moderation on top of incredibly high equity levels should play out to create a stable and fruitful 2025 real estate market.

If you are curious about how all of this relates to your real estate goals or you know someone that needs some guidance, please reach out. I will continue to help keep you well informed so you can be empowered to make strong decisions.

Reflecting on the joy of the holiday season always brings with it gratitude. One of the most important pieces of my business is working with an office that always makes it a priority to come together as a team throughout the year to lift up our neighbors in need and give back to our communities. Our collective gratitude runs deep, and spreading some love and support within our community is the best way we can celebrate everything we are thankful for.

This year our holiday food drive brought in $1,372 and 1,422 pounds of food for Volunteers of America Western Washington food banks. These numbers are all thanks to friends and clients like you. Thank you for your generosity! The current need in our area is high, and our local food banks need all the help they can get.

Next, we had the absolute joy of helping bring some Christmas magic to homeless/housing-insecure youth in our area. We partnered again this year with Washington Kids in Transition, who work with social workers in Edmonds School District schools (includes the communities of Edmonds, Lynnwood, Brier & Mountlake Terrace) to collect wish lists from homeless/housing insecure students living in shelters, tents, cars, transitional housing or other temporary housing and partners with the community to fulfill those wishes. The brokers in my office all came together and we adopted the wish lists of 24 local youth, who would have otherwise gone without this holiday season.

The rest of the year, Washington Kids in Transition provides emergency closets (coats, diapers, toiletries, etc.), hotel vouchers, utility assistance, rental deposits, and recently started a teen mentorship program. This new program is in high demand, but does not yet have reliable funding, so we decided to also raise funds for that as well over the holiday. We raised a total of $3,815 for this new program, which helps teens learn basic life skills as well as have fun activities they otherwise wouldn’t have access to.

Another holiday staple at my office is putting together volunteer groups at Christmas House and also Holly House this year. Both organizations are local non-profits (100% volunteer-run) that provide opportunities for qualifying, low-income parents to select free holiday gifts for their children. This is always an amazing time helping families in need have a joyful Christmas.

You can access any of the links above to learn more about these organizations or to donate yourself.  As we head into 2025, our commitment to giving back to the community that we serve will remain a cornerstone of our business. Here’s to a happy, healthy, and heartwarming 2025 and beyond.

As we head into the holidays and mark the final stretch of the year, I wanted to report on the 2024 real estate market and where we might be headed in 2025. To set the stage, I must mention the ride that it has been over the last five years. Since 2019, we have experienced some key market factors that have influenced market activity and prices.

2019 was a year of recovery after the market corrected in 2018 (due to the Seattle Head Tax), and we all know what happened in 2020. The pandemic threw the real estate market into a frothy uptick from mid-2020 to mid-2022, fueled by work-from-home moves and historically low interest rates. Sales counts and price appreciation were ” off the charts,” specifically in 2021. Once interest rates climbed over 5% in the spring of 2022, price appreciation capped, started to correct, and sales declined. Since then, prices have recovered and stabilized, and the sales count has slowly started to increase.

After reviewing the last 10 years of closed sales, we are down about 25% YTD in King County and 30% in Snohomish County from a normal average closed sales rate. This has remained stubborn due to the lock-in effect that the previous low rates have created. For example, many homeowners who purchased or re-financed to obtain a rate of 3-4% are holding tight to their monthly payments. This has caused many people to stay in homes that don’t ideally fit their lifestyle due to wanting to keep the monthly payment and overall affordability.

This has created tight inventory, which has insulated prices and helped the market recover from the 2022 correction. The dance between rates and low inventory is directly related, and despite rates being higher in 2024 than they were in 2022, prices remain strong. A seller’s market is defined by 0-2 months of inventory (if no new homes came to market, we would sell out of homes in this amount of time), a balanced market is 2-4 months, and a buyer’s market is 4+ months. Over the last 5 years, we have primarily been in a seller’s market. This has caused prices to increase by 59% in Snohomish County over the last 5 years and by 42% in King County.

The age-old principle of supply and demand has had the most significant impact on prices despite volatile interest rates. Several experts predict that interest rates will slowly decrease throughout 2025. As you can see from the chart below, we will not return to the historic levels we saw in 2020-2021 (we may never). As would-be sellers contemplate the lock-in effect vs. what they want/need out of their housing and line it up against interest rates, we should see a gradual increase in closed sales in 2025 over 2024. The market is slowly starting to accept this new normal. Also, in some cases, moves cannot be delayed due to life circumstances, and the lock-in effect is not a driver.

Another aspect to point out is the trends we typically see in post-election years. Historical data indicates increased closed sales, lower interest rates, and price growth. This data, coupled with pent-up seller demand and gradually decreasing interest rates, should drive sales to increase slightly and prices to appreciate and remain stable.  Most homeowners are sitting on well-established equity, enabling them to make fluid moves.

If you or someone you know is considering buying, selling, or both, now is a great time to reach out. Executing a purchase and/or sale and a move takes strategic planning to achieve the best outcome. I love helping my clients identify their goals, curate a detailed list of items to create the ideal results, and help guide the process to a successful finish. A new year brings a fresh start, and why not start to verbalize, visualize, and start your planning now, whether your goals are immediate or in the distant future? Please use me as your real estate resource, as my goal is to be your trusted advisor rooted in data and market education.