As we head into the holidays and mark the final stretch of the year, I wanted to report on the 2024 real estate market and where we might be headed in 2025. To set the stage, I must mention the ride that it has been over the last five years. Since 2019, we have experienced some key market factors that have influenced market activity and prices.

2019 was a year of recovery after the market corrected in 2018 (due to the Seattle Head Tax), and we all know what happened in 2020. The pandemic threw the real estate market into a frothy uptick from mid-2020 to mid-2022, fueled by work-from-home moves and historically low interest rates. Sales counts and price appreciation were ” off the charts,” specifically in 2021. Once interest rates climbed over 5% in the spring of 2022, price appreciation capped, started to correct, and sales declined. Since then, prices have recovered and stabilized, and the sales count has slowly started to increase.

After reviewing the last 10 years of closed sales, we are down about 25% YTD in King County and 30% in Snohomish County from a normal average closed sales rate. This has remained stubborn due to the lock-in effect that the previous low rates have created. For example, many homeowners who purchased or re-financed to obtain a rate of 3-4% are holding tight to their monthly payments. This has caused many people to stay in homes that don’t ideally fit their lifestyle due to wanting to keep the monthly payment and overall affordability.

This has created tight inventory, which has insulated prices and helped the market recover from the 2022 correction. The dance between rates and low inventory is directly related, and despite rates being higher in 2024 than they were in 2022, prices remain strong. A seller’s market is defined by 0-2 months of inventory (if no new homes came to market, we would sell out of homes in this amount of time), a balanced market is 2-4 months, and a buyer’s market is 4+ months. Over the last 5 years, we have primarily been in a seller’s market. This has caused prices to increase by 59% in Snohomish County over the last 5 years and by 42% in King County.

The age-old principle of supply and demand has had the most significant impact on prices despite volatile interest rates. Several experts predict that interest rates will slowly decrease throughout 2025. As you can see from the chart below, we will not return to the historic levels we saw in 2020-2021 (we may never). As would-be sellers contemplate the lock-in effect vs. what they want/need out of their housing and line it up against interest rates, we should see a gradual increase in closed sales in 2025 over 2024. The market is slowly starting to accept this new normal. Also, in some cases, moves cannot be delayed due to life circumstances, and the lock-in effect is not a driver.

Another aspect to point out is the trends we typically see in post-election years. Historical data indicates increased closed sales, lower interest rates, and price growth. This data, coupled with pent-up seller demand and gradually decreasing interest rates, should drive sales to increase slightly and prices to appreciate and remain stable.  Most homeowners are sitting on well-established equity, enabling them to make fluid moves.

If you or someone you know is considering buying, selling, or both, now is a great time to reach out. Executing a purchase and/or sale and a move takes strategic planning to achieve the best outcome. I love helping my clients identify their goals, curate a detailed list of items to create the ideal results, and help guide the process to a successful finish. A new year brings a fresh start, and why not start to verbalize, visualize, and start your planning now, whether your goals are immediate or in the distant future? Please use me as your real estate resource, as my goal is to be your trusted advisor rooted in data and market education.

As 2024 starts to come to a close, I want to spend some time talking about first-time homebuyers. Even if you already own a home, this is an important message to share; it can change someone’s life! In 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, first-time home buyers represented 24% of the market share, which was down from 32% in 2022. First-time homebuyers are a critical part of the real estate market cycle, and we need to empower this group to invest in their future. They are also the audience that purchases inventory, enabling sellers to move on to their next home, which creates a domino effect as it travels up the market.

Often, first-time homebuyers purchase entry-level properties such as condos, townhomes, or smaller single-family residential homes based on affordability. It is also important to note that a buyer does not need a 20% down payment to purchase a home. In fact, according to NAR, the typical down payment for a first-time homebuyer in 2023 was 8%. There are loan programs that only require 3% down payments and even assistance programs requiring zero down. It is important to explore options so one knows their opportunity potential. For example, lenders will often advise borrowers to focus on saving vs. paying down debt in order to better qualify for a loan.

Sometimes, first-time homebuyers are able to skip that first level of home ownership and purchase a home that they plan to be in for many years, yet that is rare. I have found that it is critical that first-time homebuyers are focused on what monthly payment they feel comfortable taking on and commit to shopping at that price point. They then apply that price point to a combination of location, property type, and the condition/features they can afford.

The primary benefit of ditching the rent payment and becoming a first-time homebuyer is getting on the trajectory of building household wealth. As you can see from the charts below, real estate has appreciated in both King and Snohomish counties over the last 10 years, whether it be a condo or a single-family residential property. This appreciation becomes a nest egg of savings for the homeowner over time.

 

For example, if you use the data from the Snohomish County Condo chart, a first-time homebuyer who bought a condo in 2020, the median price in the market was $379,000. That is now $533,000, which is a 41% gain. Granted, these are raw numbers and represent a 30,000-foot view of the market, which illustrates the trends. We can’t simply apply the percentage growth in the market overall; we would analyze comparable properties in the specific area of the subject property to find the accurate value. The appreciation trend, however, shows that the first-time homebuyer who bought in 2020 is now sitting on a healthy nest egg of savings to utilize to purchase their next home if they desire a different property based on life changes. Plus, there is no other investment vehicle that allows tax-free capital gains up to $500,000.I point this out because I often encounter would-be first-time homebuyers who call off their search because they cannot afford the type of home or area they want, and continue to rent in the hopes of saving more to afford what they want later. While I would never want anyone to buy a home they don’t want, I do encourage my clients to consider what they can compromise on in order to start building wealth through homeownership sooner rather than later. Even if you apply the home appreciation for condos in Snohomish County prior to the pandemic, the median price in 2015 was $246,000, and four years later, it was $353,000, which is a 44% gain. Most people would not be able to save that much over that period of time, hence the advantage of building wealth via homeownership.

An exercise I often use with my buyer clients is applying the Triangle of Buyer Clarity to their budget and search. I am the first person to say that shopping for a home is exciting and even romantic, which results in starry eyes focused on dream homes and HGTV lore. I find that the quicker a buyer is able to put the dreaming part aside and get to the brass tacks of the market, the quicker they succeed in a purchase. Monthly payment is the single most important element to focus on to bring clarity to a buyer’s search. This figure should direct the price range for a buyer, which will determine which location, condition/features, and property type they can afford.

 

As you can see from the example of the Triangle of Buyer Clarity, buyers often have to adapt their search to meet their budget needs; it is rarely the perfect balance of an equilateral triangle. That could mean adapting by buying a townhome instead of a single-family home, going to a location that is a little further out, or being OK with a 90’s kitchen instead of a perfectly modern masterpiece. Getting into the market is more important than finding the perfect fit. The good news is that market trends show that townhomes, all locations throughout each county, and even 90’s kitchens appreciate! One could even tap into their equity down the road once it is built up and remodel that 90’s kitchen.Homeownership provides many benefits. Wealth-building opportunities are huge because we all need a place to live, so why not pay your own mortgage and gain appreciation instead of building your landlord’s portfolio? There are tax benefits, too, as you can use the interest as a write-off. Plus, you get the freedom to make your house your own and build a community where you live. You can paint the walls and dig in the dirt, and you don’t have to answer to your landlord. Overall, homeownership provides stability, freedom, and community. Helping my clients gain tangible and intangible benefits is the primary goal I work towards.

This is why I couldn’t let 2024 end without giving a shout-out to the would-be first-time homebuyers out there. My best piece of advice if you are considering buying your first home is to come up with a plan. I offer all of my clients a buyer consultation meeting where we review the market trends, apply their goals and search criteria, get them connected with a reputable lender, and devise a custom plan for them. The plan could start right away or sometime in the future; what matters is working towards the goal.

My mission is to help people gain the benefits of homeownership when they are ready. When I hand off the keys to a first-time homebuyer, it is one of the most rewarding aspects of my job because I know we have changed their lives for the better. If you are a potential first-time buyer or know someone who is, please reach out, I’d be honored to help.

Your home is your shelter where you make memories, a large part of your financial nest egg, and a vehicle for creating wealth. Knowing what your home is worth is empowering and important. The reasons that may come up when you need to know your home’s value can have a direct impact on your financial health. Do you need to update your insurance, do some estate, tax, or financial planning, prepare for a re-finance, line of credit, or remodel, or are you considering a move? Relying on accurate home valuations for all of these endeavors will result in the best outcome.

To estimate your home’s value, you can easily jump on a public website that will spit out a value. This is called an AVM (Automated Valuation Model). There are a handful of free ones such as Zillow, Redfin, and RealEstimate. These sites are free for the consumer to visit and are based on a unique AI-generated algorithm that is typically a recipe of tax assessment data, CPI figures, market trend data, computer-picked comparable properties, and user-submitted data. They do not take into consideration important value points such as the condition of your home, improvements you’ve made, or nuances of the neighborhood; factors that only an actual person can evaluate.

It is important to note that on all three of these free sites, the algorithm and AVM tool are funded by the advertisers on the site, which are real estate brokers and lenders who want your business. The AVM is the carrot to get you in front of these high-paying advertisers who hope you click to connect so they can convert you into their real estate client. This is unlike the relationship-based business that I foster; this is more of a “sales-y,” transactional approach. Despite the sharks in the water, an AVM is a good starting point, like dipping your toe in the pool, but don’t get bit!

Here are the current AVM (Automated Valuation Model) values for a subject home from four sources (3 free and 1 fee-based). As you can see, the values vary. If you have a need to know the value of your home, don’t rely on an algorithm. According to Zillow, their accuracy varies by 7.49%; that is a huge variation! For example, that is $75,000, either high or low, for a $1M home. Depending on what you are planning for, that inaccuracy can severely cost you.