The headlines are swirling about the real estate market. The environment is shifting from a seller’s market to a balanced market, creating opportunities for buyers and holding sellers to exacting standards. The primary factors affecting this shift are inventory levels, interest rates, and consumer confidence. These are the same factors that commonly influence the market conditions, and for the first time since 2018, months of inventory have reached their highest peak. Interest rates have remained stubborn, hovering around 7% for the last six months, and the stock market drama in April took a toll on consumer sentiment.
The good news is that the stock market has fully recovered from the April decline; however, the residual effects are likely to have some lasting impact on consumer confidence as they plan their financial decisions. Other good news for buyers is the increase in selection, which allows for more negotiations and can provide the option of a buyer credit. In King County, there were 62% more homes for sale in May compared to the same month last year, and 33% more than in April. In Snohomish County, there were 48% more homes for sale in May compared to the same month last year, and 32% more than in April. It is also important to note that each sub-market, established by price point, location, and property type, can vary. We are currently seeing a mix of sellers’, balanced, and buyers’ markets across the region as inventory increases.
We surveyed our office’s pending sales over the last two months, and one in three transactions had a buyer credit, with an average credit of $14,000. This is where a credit to the buyer from the seller is baked into the contract. Often, this accompanies a full-price offer (from the list price), and sometimes the offer is below the list price. These credits are used to offset the buyer’s closing costs, which leaves more money in the buyer’s pocket post-closing for improvements, a larger down payment, or savings. We are also seeing savvy buyers use these credits to buy down their interest rate, thereby saving on their monthly payment.
A permanent rate buydown requires approximately 3% of the purchase price to lower the rate by one point for the 30-year term of the loan. A good rule of thumb to remember is that every 1-point decrease in rate equals a 10% increase in buying power. For example, if the rate is 7% and you are qualified for a home at $800,000, and the rate were to decrease by 1 point to 6%, you could now afford $880,000 with a very similar payment. Another way to look at this is simply the monthly payment itself. An $800,000 purchase with 20% down and a 6% interest rate would save a buyer $420.82 a month compared to the payment at 7%.
A permanent buydown is a valuable tool, as is a temporary buydown. It is one of the most powerful tools in today’s market. It costs far less than a permanent buy-down. Here is an example: let’s say you are shopping for a house and have an $800,000 budget, along with a 20% down payment (btw, this works for any down payment amount), given today’s interest rate of 7%. The monthly principal and interest payment would be $4,257.94. You could do a 2-1 buydown (2 points lower in year one and 1 point lower in year 2), which would have your payment in year one be based on an interest rate of 5% with a monthly principal and interest payment of $3,435.66 – a savings of $822.28 a month. For year two, the monthly principal and interest would be based on 6%, resulting in a monthly payment of $3,837.12, a $420.82 savings. The total savings in monthly payments with the 2-1 buy-down over the two years would be $14,917.18.
The roughly $15,000 in monthly payment savings is paid upfront at closing and can be provided as a buyer credit by the seller. The buyer still needs to qualify based on the 7% interest rate, as the payments will be converted to those based on the 7% rate in year three and moving forward. The buyer may never have to pay the 7% amount if rates decrease and they can refinance within the two years, permanently locking in a rate below 7%. A bonus is that if the entire $15,000 credit has not been used yet, in some cases, those unused funds can be applied towards the refinance. The latest expert rate predictions are below. While we don’t have a crystal ball to predict when this will happen, I do know that when it does, there will be more buyer competition in the market, which will affect negotiations.
A peculiar aspect of consumer sentiment is that when there is more inventory and the market becomes more balanced, as opposed to a tight market where buyers are competing for limited choices, it confuses buyers. They tend to slow down and think something may be wrong. Savvy buyers will zero in on a house they want and use this time to negotiate better terms for due diligence and possible credits, rather than escalating prices and accepting no contingencies that often occur in a seller’s market. Another benefit to a balanced market is the return of home sale contingencies. This balance of inventory is necessary to introduce this option, and it has been quite a while since we’ve seen this happen. Although they are not commonplace, they are on the rise. This enables the buyer to purchase contingent on the successful sale and closing of their current home. It was how real estate used to be done, and a great option if all lines up.
Now, how does this increase in inventory affect sellers? As mentioned above, it raises the bar on property preparation, accurate price positioning, and overall appeal. When there are more choices, you need to stand out! That is why homes that meet these criteria continue to sell for more than their list price and receive multiple offers. Homes that are brought to market, neutralized, staged, free of deferred maintenance, and appropriately priced are selling quickly. If a home has modern improvements, that helps too, as many buyers prefer move-in condition as they are often using the bulk of their savings for a down payment to create the lowest possible monthly payment.
So, what is appropriate price positioning? I will start with the big picture first. Sellers must maintain a long-term perspective and assess their equity growth during their ownership. Single-family residential prices in King County have increased by 91% over the past decade and by 44% over the past five years. Single-family residential prices in Snohomish County have increased by 113% over the past decade and by 52% over the past five years. Sellers have made remarkable gains, and success should not be measured by the froth of a seller’s market, but by the gains of a sale in any market. The big-picture approach often leads to a smooth and profitable transition from one house to the next.
Now, back to the tactics of price positioning. Annual prices typically peak in the spring, and after reviewing the latest May 2025 figures, it appears we have hit the peak for the year. This is about 30-45 days earlier than in 2024 and previous years. Additionally, year-over-year prices are flat and slightly down from 2024, so sellers should consider this when choosing their price with their broker. This, along with the increase in selection, means that sellers need to determine the value point at which a buyer is willing to make an offer when they have more choices. They cannot price based on last year’s market, which had different environmental factors.
One thing we can always count on in life is change. The real estate market is no different. In the case of our local real estate market, this change sits on the shoulders of monumental growth. There is always an opportunity within the change, and staying close to the data helps unearth this. I’m encouraged by the balance in the market and look forward to helping my clients navigate their life transitions in the most effective way possible. Research, data, and listening to my client’s goals are the backbone of my approach. If you or someone you know is experiencing significant life changes that a move could help with, please reach out. We can discuss the big picture, apply the data, and chart a custom plan together. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well-informed and empower them to make strong decisions.
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