Since the start of 2021, we have seen the median price increase quite a bit in our region. Inventory has remained tight and interest rates remain historically low. This has contributed to the increase in prices, along with the thriving tech industry in the Greater Seattle area. I’ve been working on the front lines of one of the most intense markets in history and I can tell you first hand that buyers are tired! Here is what I’d like to share though – they shouldn’t give up!!

Month-to-date new listings are up 12% over May in Snohomish County and 8% in King County. This has helped reduce multiple offers and I’m starting to see some homes get just one offer. This is starting to level out the brisk price appreciation we saw from January through May. In Q1, almost every listing was getting multiple offers and bid up. Now, I’m seeing new listings benefit from the price growth since January and starting to level out in regards to additional price growth as we head into the second half of 2021. Beware that “cream puff” listings are still going bonkers. Buyers with a fixed budget may want to avoid those and be open to adjusting their search or being satisfied with 75% of their wish list. As we head into the second half of 2021, I predict we will start to see a tempering in price growth as the froth spills over the top of the cup of this market.

This will provide opportunities for buyers who put themselves on the sidelines or are just entering the market to successfully find a home. Interest rates remain incredible, and one must take into consideration the long-term savings that a low rate provides for your monthly payment. The average homeowner owns their home for 10 years in the U.S. Securing a low rate and utilizing that as a financial tool to help create wealth over the time of owning your home is a critical element for your financial success.

For example, two years ago rates were nearly a point higher, which would cost a buyer roughly $250 more per month for a $500,000 mortgage. Over ten years that is approximately a $30,000 savings in monthly cash flow. Now, look at the 10-year price growth in our area. In King County prices have grown by 111% over the last ten years and 127% in Snohomish County. Interest rate savings along with long-term price appreciation underscores why 41% of American’s think Real Estate is the best financial investment.

More so, I think this analysis typifies the point of the quote above. Real Estate is a tool to help build wealth, not an instant lottery ticket. The financial reward doesn’t happen when you sign your closing papers, it happens when you sell. You must make the purchase in order to sell in the future to reap the long-term reward. Real Estate is also where you live; it’s where you take shelter and create memories. It is one-part savings account and one-part safe haven. Both aspects should always be taken into consideration. Lifestyle changes lead most people to make a purchase; the byproduct is matching your home to your lifestyle needs and building wealth over time.

I know it’s been a rough go for buyers this year and the media is reporting dated news as they are often using closed data that is a month old. Please use me as a resource, as I can provide real-time data and help you analyze the best decision for you and your family. Also, Matthew Gardener, Windermere’s Chief Economist recently shared his thoughts on price appreciation. Check out the video below to hear his insights. In the meantime, please know it is always my goal to help keep my clients well informed in order to empower strong decisions. I pay close attention and urge you if you are considering a purchase to seize the day.

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I had the misguided notion that closing out 2020 was going lead to more normalcy in our industry as we all yearned to move on to the new year. Boy, was I shocked as Q1 unfolded; 2021 had its own agenda in store! What the new year brought, was its own set of drama as the economy headed towards recovery and the vaccine emerged. The continued historically low interest rates have fueled the housing pivots being made across our region and our country. Lifestyle moves have driven demand, but interest rates along with hearty equity levels have helped financially enable these life-changing moves. Interest rates have hovered around 3% since the beginning of the year. Additionally, 38% of all homeowners own their homes free and clear, and over 50% of homeowners have up to 50% equity.

The work-from-home phenomenon (either permanent or hybrid) has re-shaped the housing market, driving many people to consider the suburbs or rural locations. Eliminating the daily commute into urban work centers has created flexibility for homeowners to live farther away from work and enjoy larger spaces and more affordable housing in comparison to cities like Seattle and Bellevue. In fact, the median home price in Snohomish County is up 15% complete year-over-year in comparison to King County at 10%. This is proof that suburban and rural housing is on the rise.

Demand (defined above) has helped to push price appreciation levels along with a shortage in available inventory. We have functioned in a lower-than-normal inventory market for over six years now. Zero to three months of inventory is defined as a seller’s market, three to six months a balanced market, and over six months a buyer’s market. This figure is established by estimating how long it would take to sell out of homes based on the closing or pending rate if no new homes came to market. In the second half of 2018, we eclipsed three months briefly but have mainly existed under three months for quite a while. In 2021, we have not breached one month, and in many submarkets have only had up to two weeks of available inventory.

2020 left a void of available inventory because we were in quarantine and many people were not comfortable opening their homes up to strangers. Plus, some people needed to pause and see how this was all going to shake out for them. I think the turn of the new year coupled with the vaccine has empowered people to make the moves they have been considering while they won the wait at home. We have a smattering of generations at the helm all wanting to make moves for different reasons. First-time home buyers, retirees, and move-up buyers are all hoping to take advantage of low debt service and pivot to a home with a better fit for their lifestyle goals.

Lifestyle demands, low rates, scarce inventory, and formidable equity have created a very competitive market. Large down payments due to moving equity from one home to the next, along with strict lending requirements have propped up the stability of the housing market. I am often asked if we are headed towards a housing bubble because of the rate of home appreciation, but it is important to understand that home values are supported by strong loan-to-value ratios and scrutinized lending. Unlike the Great Recession of 2008, when predatory lending (that involved low to no down payments and undocumented loans) formed an unstable foundation that eventually crumbled.

The biggest challenge I see in the housing market in our region is affordability. It is expensive to live in the Greater Seattle area, plain and simple. The work-from-home option has provided flexibility to live farther out, which has put upward pressure on prices everywhere. We have had a re-organization of where people live and it has been surprising which communities have become attractive and in-demand. I predict at some point this will settle down as these newly refined housing needs find their place. Additionally, May through August is when we seasonally see more homes come to market. This should hopefully make it a bit easier for buyers to secure a home, and help soften the ramp-up on prices. This has already started to show itself over the last few weeks.

Financial indicators in our region are positive. Only 3.6% of homes in Washington state are in mortgage forbearance (a fraction of where we were at a year ago), tech jobs continue to drive employment, and the overall local economy and home equity are very strong. Your home is intended to be a long-term investment. If price appreciation starts to soften as we climb out of our inventory deficit this will be more sustainable for affordability. Buyers will still be on the road to building wealth with some of the lowest interest rates ever, and we must remember that homeownership is not just an investment but where we live and create memories. Sellers will continue to enjoy large payoffs as long-term equity growth is abundant. Keeping a grounded perspective will be key as the market twists and turns from the extremes. If there is anything I can guarantee it is that the market is always changing and it can change fast.

If you are curious about how today’s market relates to your lifestyle and financial goals, please reach out. I’d love to discuss your needs, curiosities, and concerns as this has been an intense and eventful start to 2021. It is always my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

Windermere Community Service Day is a 40-year long tradition of giving back to the communities in which we serve, it is a valued part of our Windermere culture. If you would like to donate to help us provide additional veggie starts and supplies, please reach out. I will report back on our project in my next newsletter, letting the planting begin!